▶ 2026 Wisconsin Ag Weather Season in Review and Winter Outlook

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All right, perfect.

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Thanks, Jerry and good afternoon, everyone.

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Like Jerry said, my name is Josh Bendorf.

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I work as the Climate Outreach specialist within the Wisconsin State Climatology office, which is a part of Extension. Today,

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As we’re, you know, growing season’s wrapping up, we’re well under way with grain harvest.

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I thought it would be a good time to do a weather season in review.

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So just kind of look at look back to where we started the growing season up to where we are now and then with a little bit of an outlook into the rest of fall and into winter.

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Advance my slides.

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There we go.

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So we’re going to start out with the early part of the growing season, April through June.

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So a lot was going on during this time period.

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Temperatures, looking at county average temperature rank the map that you see there on the left pretty much across the board in Wisconsin, it was a warmer than normal April through June.

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It ranked as our 32nd warmest April through June on record.

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Going back to 1895, we are about degree and a half to 2°F above normal across the state.

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Looking at the month of April, we were three to six degrees above normal across most of the state.

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But this involves some pretty dramatic temperature swings.

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We had some days that were very summerlike, very unseasonably warm, but we also had some days that were getting below freezing at night.

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You know, April’s kind of a transition time of year, so we would expect a little bit of that.

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During the month of May, things were a little bit more moderate, temperatures were closer to normal.

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Our last spring freeze date, which typically in Wisconsin occurs from late April to the first part of May.

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It was right around average this time of year.

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For this year, late spring freeze or last spring freeze, excuse me, was within a few days of average at the major Wisconsin airports.

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And for the month of June, we had our first taste of some extreme summer heat.

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We had some extreme heat to close out the month.

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For the most part, June was a very comfortable month weather wise.

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We didn’t have a lot of extreme heat until the very end of the month.

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Where on June 29th and June 30th.

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Multiple Wisconet stations across the state reported heat indices that were well over 100° with high humidity and high temperatures.

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So looking at precipitation now for the same map as before, just now ranking 2026 April through June precipitation in terms of all years on record.

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It was a mixed bag across the state.

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For the most part, it was wetter than normal across most Wisconsin counties.

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Those counties shaded there in green.

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A few counties in the north and West were below average, but you see the counties there that are shaded in that darker teal color, Those ones were actually, they had their top 15 wettest April through, yeah, April through June on record.

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The month of April was actually our wettest April on record.

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We had totals across the state that were in the ballpark of about 3 inches above average, so quite a bit wetter than normal.

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And it was actually our most severe month on record, not just our most severe April, but our most severe month on record going back to 2005.

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And we had a combined 281 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings across Wisconsin.

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The pendulum really swung to the other direction though during the month of May.

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It was our fourth driest May all time and it was our record driest for some counties in the Southeast.

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On a state level, we were about two to three inches below normal precipitation.

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Milwaukee stood out as having its driest May on record.

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Only .36 inches of precipitation fell in Milwaukee during the month of May.

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So with the dry May that we had, we were starting to have some concerns about drought in the first part of June.

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You were getting into the growing season.

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The crops are taking up water, moisture demand is going up.

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So we really needed some rainfall.

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June, we got some of that rainfall.

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Near normal rainfall helped alleviate some of those drought concerns.

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But as rain often does during the summertime, it came in the form of some severe storms.

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Similar to April.

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We had a lot of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the month of June.

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We had 183 combined and it was the most active June for severe weather since 2008.

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So a lot of precipitation ping ponging here during this three month period.

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What did this mean for drought in the state?

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So the map you see there on the left is the April 28th, the US Drought Monitor map in the different categories for Wisconsin, because of the really wet April that we had, we didn’t have any drought in Wisconsin.

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The only abnormal dryness that we had in the state was just that little area you see in yellow there up in far northwestern Wisconsin.

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But resulting from that really dry May that we had, by the time we got into the first week of June, things looked a lot different.

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We had abnormal dryness covering most of Wisconsin and we had a few areas of D1 drought in South Central and southeastern Wisconsin as well as in West central counties.

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But like I said, we got some timely rains during the month of June in certain parts of Wisconsin.

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It helped to cut back on a lot of the D1 that we had in southern Wisconsin, just took it down to a few little pockets and reduce the amount of abnormal dryness that we had in the state.

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In terms of crop progress, where we were at the end of June, things were progressing nicely.

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We were 97% corn emerged by June 21st and that was 3% ahead of where we would expect to be for late June.

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And similarly for soybeans, we were 95% emerged and 2% above average and and conditions good to excellent at this time were around 80% for both crops.

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In terms of soil moisture, 79% of topsoil in Wisconsin fields were rated as adequate at the at late June.

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And at the same during the same week only 10% of topsoil was short to very short.

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So we had good soil moisture, crops were progressing well and conditions were were were pretty good by late June.

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Now let’s jump ahead a little bit to mid to late season July through September.

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And this is when things really started to shift in certain parts of Wisconsin.

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Looking at temperatures, it was a really warm July through September.

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It was actually our third warmest on records.

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You can see the dark orange shading across most Wisconsin counties 3 to 4° above average in the state.

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And the counties up there in the northern part of the state that are shaded in that darker red color had their all time warmest July through September on record.

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July in particular was really warm.

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It was our ninth warmest July on record.

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And we had some bouts of very high humidity during the month of July.

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It actually ranked as our fifth most humid July on record since 1979, according to some data that our office looked at.

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We had multiple days with dew points that were topping 75°F with some instances of 80° dew points.

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Where I’m at in southwestern Wisconsin, we had a couple days like that.

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It felt awful outside.

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So, you know, just something we’re not really accustomed to in Wisconsin, but we experienced it a couple times during the month of July.

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Things were a little bit more moderate during the month of August.

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We had near average temperatures for most of the month, but on the night of August 24th we had our first taste of fall for most folks in Wisconsin.

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Not just folks in the north, but pretty much all across the state.

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On the night of August, the the night of August 23rd into the 24th, there were overnight lows in the 40s across most of Wisconsin and in the northern part of the state, even some instances in the mid to upper 30s.

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September started out really warm.

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We had high heat during the first few days of the month, high dew point.

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So after that cool stretch we had in late August, the things kind of ratcheted back up again in early September.

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But then more seasonal conditions set in later in the month started to get some of our first freezing days up in northern Wisconsin, which we would expect in late September.

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Overall, it was our 11th warmest September on record precipitation.

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You can see the stark contrast between southern and central Wisconsin and our friends in the northern part of the state.

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If you were in southern or central Wisconsin for mid mid to late summer into early fall, you received near to above average precipitation.

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But if you were anywhere north of Wausau, basically you were well below average for a year precipitation totals.

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And for most folks in the north, they had their top 15 driest July through September on record.

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And Florence County stands out as having their driest July through September on record.

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July was a dry month for most folks, but not everyone.

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There was near to above normal precipitation in the southwest and West central regions.

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There was a range in monthly total precipitation from over 9 inches in Monroe County on the high end to less than half inch of precipitation in South Central counties on the low end.

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So you didn’t have to go very far in the state to get some really drastic differences in precipitation totals.

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August it was the top 10 driest in the north.

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This is when things started to get really dry for the our northern counties.

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But if you were in the South Central or Southeast parts of the state you were, you were above normal.

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Those counties received about 4 to 8 inches of precipitation, but folks in the north received an inch or less.

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That was it wasn’t uncommon to for folks in the north to have a one inch or less precipitation total for the month of August and September.

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Similarly, it was a wet September for most, but the North again missed out on a lot of that similar comfortable pants.

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Similarly to August, totals across the North were commonly 75% of normal or less.

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And this was in, and this was in stark contrast to southern and central counties where 4 to 5 plus inches of precipitation was more common.

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What this meant for the drought monitor.

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So looking at where we were on July 14th, similarly to the end of June, a lot of D0 and some pockets of D1, but things really got worse between July 14th and August 18th.

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Drought really expanded in the state and you can see parts of northern Wisconsin that were in D0 or D1 in mid-july, by mid August were in D2 or even D3 level drought.

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And during the month of August, like I said before, northern Wisconsin only got an inch or so of precipitation during the month of August for evapotranspiration or water that’s being lost to the atmosphere from plants and the soil surface.

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That totaled around 4 to 5 inches.

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So we’re losing 4 to 5 inches of of water to the atmosphere and we’re only replenishing about 1 inch of that.

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So deficits can occur quite rapidly during this time of year.

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If we hit a dry stretch September, by the end of September, D3 had expanded across all of northern, pretty much all of northern Wisconsin D2 common.

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And then we even had a, we now have a pocket of D4 or exceptional level drought, the highest level of drought that the USDM categorizes up in far northern Wisconsin.

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But if you’re in the southern and most of central Wisconsin, with the rainfall that we had in September, things are near to normal for moisture and there is no drought

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In that part of the state. What this meant for crop condition for corn, soybeans and pastures, things were pretty steady up until the first part of July, but things have decreased steadily since the middle part of July.

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With that dryness, corn and soybeans were around 80% good to excellent in early July, but have since dropped off to about 60% by the as we’re now getting into harvest.

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Similarly with pasture and range conditions, we were at 65 if to 70% good to excellent, but are now down closer to 40.

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So now let’s take a look at September, our current month where we’ve gotten so far looking at average maximum temperatures and how those depart from average.

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For the most part in Wisconsin, it’s been a much warmer October than we would expect.

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It’s a average maximum temperatures anywhere from 65 to 70° across most of the state, so kind of feeling more like late summer than mid fall across a lot of Wisconsin.

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And those temperatures are anywhere from 6 to 8° above normal for most or even for some folks in the north, as much as 10° above normal precipitation.

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We can again see that north to South contrast, some folks down in the southwest part of the state have received 3 to 5 inches.

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At least two inches of precipitation is common across the southern two or three tiers of counties in Wisconsin.

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But across most of northern and western Wisconsin, it’s been less than two inches, and in some cases in the far northwest, less than one inch.

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And you can see on the right how that compares to normal.

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Across southern Wisconsin, it’s been 110% plus or more of normal.

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But as you get towards areas like north of La Crosse, north of Green Bay, we see it’s about 75% or less of normal.

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What this means for soil moisture.

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So this is Wisconet 4 inch plant available water change across some various Wisconet sites in the state.

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A lot of these are in southern and central Wisconsin.

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And you can see how current levels compared to where we were one month ago and two months ago.

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So just for context, plant available water is the amount of water that’s in that 4 inch depth of soil that’s available for plant roots to take up.

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So what we see is that our October 18th levels are pretty, are pretty similar to where we were a month ago here at Osseo for example, which is in West Central Wisconsin.

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That’s the site that’s had a very dry October.

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So we’ve had a little bit of a decrease there.

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But across most of these sites, we have made-up ground from the very dry August that we had. Per the latest NASS report, topsoil moisture, 10% surplus, 71% adequate and 19% short to very short averaged across the state.

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But there’s a wide range in this.

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North Central counties, for example, are the driest, have the driest soils in the state and those ones are reported at 52% short to very short.

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The drought Monitor hasn’t changed much from late September.

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We’d our moisture demand is not as high during the month of October.

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The ET rates aren’t as high as temperatures are going down.

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So warmer temperatures usually mean more evapotranspiration as well as you know actively growing plants, our corn and soybeans are drying down.

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So as such, we really haven’t seen much change in the drought monitor, maybe just a little bit of shifting in that area of D0 and D1 in Central Wisconsin.

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So now looking ahead to the next few weeks, to the next few months, so as we transition from October into the first week of November, temperatures are expected to stay warmer than normal.

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You can see the map there on the left.

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It’s about a 50 to 60% odds that we’re going to be warmer than normal compared to average.

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You can see the averages there on the right, a little bit less or so in northern and western Wisconsin.

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And there’s also a lean towards above normal precipitation, about a 40 to 50% chance of above normal precipitation.

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Again, just as a reminder, these aren’t slam dunks that it’s going to be warmer and wetter than normal.

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Those are just the ways that the probabilities lean a little bit.

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The month of November as a whole, temperatures are again, similarly to the next next one to two weeks, things are looking to kind of remain on the warmer side.

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50 to 60% chance of warmer than normal temperatures for the month of November.

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Again, this is doesn’t mean that every single day is going to be warmer than normal.

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Just kind of looking at November as a whole, it’s looking likely that it’s going to be warmer than normal.

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Precipitation is more uncertain unless you’re more on the eastern side of the state where the where you all are expected maybe see a little bit below normal precipitation.

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I want to point out that November is also the month where we we’d expect to see some, some snow, especially in the far northern part of Wisconsin.

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But even for those of us down here in the South, we could see a little bit of snow.

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We had, you know, thinking back to last year, we had a pretty large snowfall event at the end of November.

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It’s not, it’s not out of the question, but you can see here what we would expect for snowfall during the first half of November and the second half of November.

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Not a lot in the southern part of the state, maybe an inch at the most, but up in northern Wisconsin a little bit higher where lake effect snow starts to become more of a thing.

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But with the warmer than average temperatures expected for November, precipitation could be more likely to fall as a rainfall event versus a snowfall event.

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So looking at the rest of fall into like the first half of winter.

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So through January, temperatures again expected to remain warmer than normal.

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The map looks very similar to the month of November, as is precipitation.

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Where it’s on precipitation is uncertain for most folks in Wisconsin, but North Central and East Central, North Central, northeastern and East Central Wisconsin kind of might be a little bit below normal.

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And I do want, I do want to point out El Nino.

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The November through January temperature outlooks look very similar to what we would expect a strong El Nino November through January to look like in Wisconsin with above normal temperatures.

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You can see the, the graphic here on the left hand side shows the percent chance that we’re going to be in a very strong to strong El Nino phase.

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And the three the the letters on the X axis represent three month period.

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So SON is September, October, November, October, November, December etcetera, etcetera.

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And So what we can see here is that for NDJ, November, December and January, that we have a pretty high chance to be in a very strong El Nino phase for that.

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The strong El Nino that we’re experiencing now will continue through most of winter.

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And with that, we expect temperatures to remain warmer than normal.

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Precipitation’s a little bit more, a little bit more uncertain with a strong El Nino because we could see less snowfall with warmer than normal temperatures, but some we could also have more precipitation events during the winter falling as rain.

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And then lastly, before I wrap up, I just want to show the seasonal drought outlooks.

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This is how drought is expected to change over the next few months in Wisconsin.

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Drought is expected to be unchanged across the north.

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Again, we don’t see any strong indications for precipitation right now.

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And as such, we really can’t say that drought is going to shift one way or the other.

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So at least right now through January, drought is expected to remain in place across northern Wisconsin.

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And so with that, that’s all I have for you today.

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I do want to point out that you’re, if you’re a regular watcher of the of my presentations on Badger Crop Connect or you look at the ag weather outlooks for Wisconsin online, we’d love to get your feedback.

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So if you could take the user survey, that would be great.

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I’ll also point out that during the winter months, the ag Wows will be coming out monthly.

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So if you’re wondering how drought or El Nino or temperatures or things like that are progressing through the winter, we’ll have those monthly updates for you.

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So with that, I’ll pass the mic back to Jerry.