Weather and climate conditions this week in Wisconsin
Here are this week’s take-home points about the weather. As a reminder, AgWOW reports will be published weekly throughout the growing season. Scroll down for the full report.
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Key Points
Recent Conditions
- October continued to be an unseasonably warm month last week. Most of the state was at least 9°F above normal for late October.
- Very little rain fell across the southern half of the state last week (0.1” or less). The highest rainfall totals tended to be in northwestern counties along the Minnesota border (0.25-1”).
Impact
- For Wisconet stations included in the chart and table, most stations received 0.1” or less rain last week, except for northwest stations (0.2-0.4”). As a result, all stations saw decreases in soil moisture across depths.
- Satellite-based soil moisture estimates indicate that moisture percentiles in the top 1 meter did not change much from last week’s report. Dryness worsened slightly in the south due in part to minimal rainfall received last week.
- Exceptional (D4) drought expanded east into parts of Vilas, Iron, and Oneida Counties. D4 drought now covers 6% of the state.
- Corn (for grain) harvest is nearing the 50% complete mark, with harvest ongoing for cranberries and vegetables for processing. Nearly all of the state’s winter wheat crop has been planted.
Outlook
- Southern counties have the highest chance for rain over the next 7 days, with an active start to the upcoming work week.
- Temperatures are likely to remain above normal through the first 1-2 weeks of November, with precipitation leaning towards near normal.
- Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide through November into the first part of winter (Nov-Jan). Precipitation is uncertain for most of the state with “equal chances.”
Agronomic, Fruit, and Vegetable Considerations
Field Conditions
- Crop conditions are highly reflective of moisture throughout the state. Late season moisture is causing some issues with grain quality, especially in soybean. Prioritize any affected fields to ensure a timely harvest.
- Many cover crops are planted for the year, but there is still a window after grain harvest for overwintering species such as rye, triticale, and camelina.
- After harvest is a great time to take soil samples. Make plans to stay up to date with your nutrient management plan. Use a Certified Soil Lab.
Forage Management
- Read about the impacts of drought on alfalfa if your crop was affected this year and how to manage next year.
- Silo gas has been present again this year in various structures, potentially due to higher nitrate content in silage. Use caution when working with or near these storage structures.
- Avoid immediately grazing frost-damaged sorghum as the risk for prussic acid toxicity is high.
- After corn is harvested, you may consider grazing corn stalks or harvesting corn stover, based on livestock needs.
Pest Management
- Scout fields to note what weed species are part of a late season flush. Pay special attention to winter annual species.
- Planting cover crops after grain harvest is a great way to reduce soil erosion and provide weed control.
- Reducing next year’s weed seed population can be accomplished with combine cleaning.
Manure Applications
- Reminder of Wisconsin’s NR 151 Runoff Rules with the timing of manure spreading and current runoff levels. Check DATCP Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast.
- As you conduct fall spreading, keeping field records is important to estimate crop nutrient needs. Refer to A2809 for guidance. Fall is also a great time to have manure samples analyzed for nutrient content.
Small Grains
- Read the Top 9 Recommendations for Winter Wheat Establishment in 2026. Winter wheat planting is below average for mid-October with the planting window to maximize fall tiller growth ending. Check emerged stands for uniformity.
Fruit Considerations – General
- Fall Sanitation: Clean up weeds around trees and vines, mow aisles to allow for better light penetration to aid in decomposition of leaf/plant material.
- Fall Sanitation: After leaf drop, chop, compost, remove or burn (where permitted) fallen leaf and plant material to to limit potential for disease inoculum and any overwintering pests.
- Remember to note observable fruit damage at harvest to make adjustments in next year’s pest management plan.
- Wisconsin fruit growers can reference the Midwest Fruit Pest Management Guide for a list of registered products and recommended best practices. View the MFPMG Online.
- Reminder: Always read and follow directions on the label and keep in mind pre-harvest intervals (PHI) as we move through harvest!
Vegetable Considerations – General
- Soil testing is a great way to gather accurate information on nutrient levels in your soil and start planning for any nutrient applications that may be needed. You can take a soil sample for testing soil sample for testing as long as the ground is not frozen.
- As fall weather gets colder you can still plant a cold tolerant cover crop such as cereal rye. Be sure to have a plan for terminating your cover crop before you plant. Consider your goals for your cover crop, and plan accordingly for the right amount of biomass to meet those goals.
- Consider how you can prepare for a strong El Niño this winter. This article from University of Minnesota Extension has tips including increased pest monitoring and planning for potential warm and wet spring conditions.
- With frost moving in across the state, there’s still time to plant your fall garlic. Planting should occur within 1-2 weeks of the first fall frost for optimum growth.
Vegetable Considerations – Disease
- Continue to monitor for post-harvest storage issues on vegetables which could include soft rots and gray mold. Optimal storage conditions vary by crop, so be sure to know the right conditions for every crop.
Vegetable Considerations – Insects
- Pest management for next year’s crops starts this fall as many insects and diseases overwinter on crop residue. Residue management (either removing or tilling in residue) can help reduce next year’s pest and disease pressure. Pests include asparagus beetles, crucifer flea beetles, imported cabbage worms, squash bugs, onion maggots, and more.
Dive deeper into each report section by clicking a topic below.
Precipitation Trends
7 Day Precipitation
Image Description ↓
Map displaying 7-day radar estimates of rainfall from October 20 to October 27, 2026. Green shading indicates rainfall between 0.5 to 1.0 inch across central and northern Wisconsin, while blue shading indicates 0.1 to 0.5 inches across eastern, southern, and northern areas, with light blue and white showing under 0.1 inch in far southeastern counties.
Image Description ↓
Map titled “Accumulated Precipitation: Percent of 1991-2020 Normals” covering October 21, 2026 to October 27, 2026, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. The map of Wisconsin uses a color scale from dark brown (0%) to bright green (200%). Southern Wisconsin, including Madison and Milwaukee, is shaded dark maroon indicating 0% to 2% of normal precipitation. Central regions around Green Bay show dark red to orange hues representing 5% to 20%. Northern regions around Eau Claire range from yellow (50% to 75%) to green areas in the west reaching 110% to 150% of normal precipitation. Source text cites PRISM Weather Data and NCEI Normals, generated October 29, 2026.
- Very little rain fell across the southern half of the state last week (0.1” or less).
- Totals of 0.25-1” were common across the north. The highest totals tended to be in northwestern counties along the Minnesota border (near to above normal).
- Highest Wisconet station total from last week: 0.86” (Grantsburg, Burnett County). Totals in Burnett County were as high as 150-200% of normal.
30 Day Precipitation
- Southern counties received 2-5” since late September, totals that were near to slightly above average.
- Central and northern counties tended to be drier than normal (≤75% or normal), with totals of 2” or less common.
90 Day Precipitation
- In the southern 2/3 of the state, totals ranged from 7.5-15” for most, with localized areas of 15-20” in the far south. Rainfall totals in this region were near to above average (90-150%+).
- Far northern counties were the driest (5” or less), with most locations receiving totals that were at or below 75% of normal.
2026 Precipitation
- Southern and central counties – 2-8” above normal for the year, with pockets of 8-12” above normal.
- Far north and northwest counties – 4-12” below normal for the year.
Soil Moisture and Temperature Trends
Soil Moisture Models
Image Description ↓
Map from NOAA, NIDIS, and NASA showing 0 to 100 cm Soil Moisture Percentiles valid October 26, 2026. Dark brown and red areas indicating soil moisture percentiles below 5 cover northern and northwestern Wisconsin, while yellow and orange shades between 5 and 30 cover central and southern Wisconsin.
Image Description ↓
Map from NOAA, NIDIS, and NASA showing 0 to 100 cm Soil Moisture Percentiles valid October 19, 2026. Northwestern and northern Wisconsin are shaded in red and dark brown representing low soil moisture percentiles between 0 and 5. Central and southern regions range from light orange to yellow and gray, indicating percentiles between 10 and 70.
- Satellite-based soil moisture estimates indicate that moisture percentiles in the top 1 meter did not change much from last week’s report.
- Dryness worsened slightly in the south due in part to minimal rainfall received last week. The worst dryness continues to be in northern counties.
- Notes on how to interpret the maps:
- Red areas = top 5 driest in 100 years.
- Dark red areas = top 2 driest in 100 years.
- Dark blue areas = top 2 wettest in 100 years.
Wisconet Soil Moisture
- For Wisconet stations included in the chart and table, most stations received 0.1” or less rain last week, except for northwest stations (0.2-0.4”). As a result, all stations saw decreases in soil moisture across depths.
- Stations included in the chart and table that are currently in D1 drought are Suring (Oconto), Marshfield (Marathon), and Osseo (Trempealeau).
- Stations included in the chart and table that are currently in D2 drought are River Falls (Pierce) and Rice Lake (Barron).
- The table (below) shows total precipitation and changes in plant available water from October 19th (Start) to October 26th (End).
- What is plant available water? To learn more, read this article from UW Extension Ag Water Quality on plant available water. There is also a webinar from UW Extension on soil water management that you can watch.
- Example: Imagine that you have 4 inches of soil in the bottom of a bucket. In that soil, there are 1.5 inches of plant available water. Therefore, if you removed the soil and left only the water available for plant roots to take up, you would have 1.5 inches of water in the bottom of the bucket.
- The wilting point is when plant available water is at 0 inches, and the plant can no longer access water at that depth in the soil.
| Wisconet Station | County | Total Precipitation (in.) | 4″ Start | 4″ End | 8″ Start | 8″ End | 20″ Start | 20″ End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | Columbia | 0.00 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 3.94 | 3.89 |
| Brillion | Calumet | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 1.52 | 1.34 | 4.06 | 3.88 |
| Hancock | Waushara | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| Lancaster | Grant | 0.00 | 0.96 | 0.78 | 1.97 | 1.71 | 5.07 | 4.81 |
| Marshfield | Marathon | 0.07 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 2.13 | 1.89 | 5.16 | 4.96 |
| Osseo | Trempealeau | 0.08 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 1.31 | 1.09 | 3.89 | 3.63 |
| Porter | Rock | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 2.00 | 1.86 | 4.88 | 4.74 |
| Rice Lake | Barron | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 1.48 | 1.20 |
| River Falls | Pierce | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.20 | 0.87 |
| Suring | Oconto | 0.10 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| Walworth | Walworth | 0.00 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 5.05 | 4.82 |
| Wisconet Station | Current 4″ Soil Moisture | Last Week’s 4″ Soil Moisture | 1 Month Ago 4″ Soil Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| Brillion | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| Hancock | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Lancaster | 0.78 | 0.96 | N/A |
| Marshfield | 0.77 | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Osseo | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Porter | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rice Lake | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| River Falls | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| Suring | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| Walworth | 0.84 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
USDA Soil Moisture Reports
- 70% and 67% of agricultural soils in the state are reported as having adequate topsoil and subsoil moisture, respectively. Both values decreased from the previous week.
- 24% and 29% of agricultural soils in the state are reported as having short to very short topsoil and subsoil moisture, respectively. Both values increased from the previous week.
Wisconet Soil Temperature
- At 4”, 8” and 20” depth – temperatures range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s. Of the 3 depths, 20” tends to be the warmest layer across sites.
U.S. Drought Monitor
Image Description ↓
U.S. Drought Monitor map for Wisconsin released Thursday, October 29, 2026, valid October 27, 2026 at 8 a.m. EDT. The map categorizes the state into color-coded drought levels: southern Wisconsin in white (None), a belt above it in yellow (D0 Abnormally Dry), central regions in light brown (D1 Moderate Drought) and orange (D2 Severe Drought), and northern Wisconsin in red (D3 Extreme Drought) and dark brown (D4 Exceptional Drought). A data table top right lists percent area coverage for current conditions: 42.28% None, 57.72% D0-D4, 51.93% D1-D4, 43.51% D2-D4, 22.03% D3-D4, and 6.08% D4. The table compares current coverage with historical benchmarks including last week, 3 months ago, start of calendar year, start of water year, and one year ago. Author listed as Richard Tinker, CPC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP, with logos for USDA, NDMC, NOAA, and NASA.
Compared to last week:
- Midwest: Drought coverage increased by 3% from last week, primarily in states south of Wisconsin.
- 67.0% of the Midwest region is drought free (~33.0% in D1-D4).
- Wisconsin: Exceptional (D4) drought expanded east into parts of Vilas, Iron, and Oneida Counties. D4 drought now covers 6% of the state.
U.S. Drought Monitor Time Series
Image Description ↓
Line graph titled “Wisconsin Drought Time Series (USDM)” with the vertical axis representing “PERCENT OF STATE IN CATEGORY” from 0 to 100 and the horizontal axis showing dates from 4/28/26 to 10/27/26. Five color-coded lines track cumulative drought intensity over time. The yellow line (D0-D4) rises sharply in late May to near 90%, peaks in early September near 95%, and ends around 58%. The light orange line (D1-D4) follows a similar curve, rising in late July to over 70% before leveling near 52%. The dark orange line (D2-D4) climbs steadily from August onward to about 43%. The red line (D3-D4) emerges in mid-August and reaches about 22% by late October. The dark maroon line (D4) appears in mid-September and finishes near 6%.
- D0 coverage = 57.7%; D1 coverage = 51.9%; D2 coverage = 43.5%; D3 coverage = 22.0%; D4 coverage = 6.1%
Temperature Trends
7 Day Temperatures
- Average temperatures were in the upper 50s in the south, central, and west. Further north, temps were in the low 50s.
- Temperatures were above normal across the state last week. Most of the state was at least 9°F above normal for late October.
30 Day Temperatures
- Average temperatures were in the low to mid-to upper 50s across most of the state. In the north, temps were in the low 50s.
- Temperatures were 4-8°F above normal across most of Wisconsin.
Growing Degree Days (Base 50°F)
Image Description ↓
Map produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center and US Department of Agriculture showing accumulated Growing Degree Days at base 50 degrees Fahrenheit from May 1, 2026 to October 26, 2026, using PRISM Weather Data. Values range from blue and purple shades under 1,790 GDD in far northern Wisconsin to orange and red shades exceeding 3,090 GDD in the southern regions around Madison and Milwaukee.
Image Description ↓
Map produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center and US Department of Agriculture showing accumulated Growing Degree Days at base 50 degrees Fahrenheit from May 15, 2026 to October 26, 2026, using PRISM Weather Data. Accumulations range from purple and blue shades around 1,660 to 1,920 GDD across northern Wisconsin to orange and red shades reaching 2,910 to 3,160 GDD in southern Wisconsin.
- Starting May 1 – Growing degree day accumulation ranges from 3220 GDD in the far south and west to 2050 GDD in the far north. These values are 110-120% of normal.
- Starting May 15 – Growing degree day accumulation ranges from 3160 GDD in the far south and west to 2030 GDD in the far north. These values are 115-120% of normal.
Crop Progress and Condition
NASS Progress Report – October 18, 2026
- Wisconsin had 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork statewide. The fall harvest was ongoing for soybeans, corn, cranberries and vegetables for processing.
- 87% of the state’s soybeans are harvested.
- Corn is 97% at maturity and 42% harvested, close to the 5-year average pace.
- The fall harvest was ongoing for cranberries and vegetables for processing.
- Corn conditions are 60% good to excellent, unchanged from last week’s report.
- Winter wheat is 88% planted and 61% emerged, which is behind the 5-year average pace.
- Pasture and range were rated 40% good to excellent, down 3% from last week.
- Read the full USDA report.
Forecasts and Outlooks
7 Day Precipitation Forecast
Image Description ↓
Map titled “7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for October 29–November 5, 2026” published by Drought.gov, NOAA, NIDIS, and the National Weather Service. A color-coded map of Wisconsin displays predicted precipitation amounts across the state. Northern Wisconsin shows lighter amounts around 0.01 to 0.5 inches in shades of green and dark blue. Central Wisconsin ranges between 0.5 and 1.25 inches in light blue and cyan. Southern Wisconsin, including Madison and Milwaukee, indicates higher totals reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches in purple and dark magenta. A legend at the bottom maps colors to inches of precipitation ranging from 0 to 20 inches. Source text cites National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, updated 10/29/26.
- When? – The best chances for rain are on Saturday (10/31), Monday (11/2), Tuesday (11/3), and Wednesday (11/4).
- Where? – Southern counties have the highest chance for rain over the next 7 days.
- Check your local forecast for details on totals and timing.
- Average precip (1991-2020) for this week: 0.54”.
7 Day Frost/Freeze Outlook
- Overnight lows of 28°F or colder are only anticipated in northern counties over the next 7 days, with the best chances on Friday (10/30) and Saturday (10/31) mornings.
- Most of Wisconsin has not experienced an overnight low of 28°F or colder as of October 27th. This is abnormally late for most counties (excluding counties along Lake Michigan).
- To get the latest 7-day frost and freeze guidance, check out the NWS Frost Freeze Decision Support Services Page.
8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
Map titled “8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook for November 5–11, 2026” published by Drought.gov, NOAA, NIDIS, and the National Weather Service. The map depicts Wisconsin and surrounding regions shaded in solid light gray. According to the legend below, solid gray represents near-normal conditions. Additional legend scales display probability percentages ranging from 33% to 100% for below-normal precipitation (tan to dark brown shades) and above-normal precipitation (light teal to dark green shades). Source text cites Climate Prediction Center, updated 10/28/26.
Image Description ↓
Map titled “8–14 Day Temperature Outlook for November 5–11, 2026” published by Drought.gov, NOAA, NIDIS, and the National Weather Service. The state of Wisconsin is shaded in light orange across the southern and central counties and darker orange across the northern counties. The map legend defines probabilities ranging from 33% to 100% for below-normal temperatures (light blue to dark navy) and above-normal temperatures (light yellow to dark red). The light orange region indicates a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures, while the dark orange region in northern Wisconsin indicates a 60% to 70% probability. Source text cites Climate Prediction Center, updated 10/28/26.
- Early-to-Mid November: Temperatures are likely to remain above normal (50-60% in the south and central; 60-70% in the north). Precipitation is leaning towards near normal.
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for November 5-11 are 36.8°F and 0.49”.
30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
NOAA, NIDIS, and National Weather Service map displaying the Monthly Precipitation Outlook for November 1–30, 2026, sourced from the Climate Prediction Center and updated on October 15, 2026. The map of Wisconsin and surrounding Great Lakes regions is mostly unshaded, indicating equal chances or near-normal precipitation levels across the state. Light tan shading indicates a 33% to 40% probability of below-normal precipitation extends across parts of Lake Michigan and eastern Michigan.
Image Description ↓
NOAA, NIDIS, and National Weather Service map displaying the Monthly Temperature Outlook for November 1–30, 2026, sourced from the Climate Prediction Center and updated on October 15, 2026. The entire state of Wisconsin is shaded orange, indicating a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures throughout the month.
- November: Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide (50-60% odds), with precipitation uncertain with equal chances. In eastern counties, there is a higher probability for below-normal precipitation (33-40% odds).
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for November 1-30 are 33.4°F and 1.99”.
90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
Map titled Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook for November 1, 2026–January 31, 2027, published by Drought.gov and Climate Prediction Center. The entirety of Wisconsin is unshaded, indicating equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Areas to the east over Lake Michigan and Michigan are shaded light tan (33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation).
Image Description ↓
Map titled Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook for November 1, 2026–January 31, 2027, from Drought.gov. Wisconsin is covered in light orange and tan shading. Most of the state, including central and northern counties, indicates a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures, while far southern Wisconsin indicates a 40% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures.
- Nov-Jan: Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide (50-60% odds), with precipitation uncertain with equal chances. In northeastern counties, there is a higher probability for below-normal precipitation (33-40% odds).
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for Nov-Jan are 23.2°F and 4.72”.
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