Weather and climate conditions this week in Wisconsin
Here are this week’s take-home points about the weather. As a reminder, AgWOW reports will be published weekly throughout the growing season. Scroll down for the full report.
Additionally, we’re collecting user feedback. Regardless of whether it’s your first time here or if you are a regular user, we’d love to hear from you!
Key Points
Recent Conditions
- Temperatures were above normal across the state last week. Most of the state was at least 3-6°F above normal, with 6-12°F above normal in the southeast
- Most of Wisconsin received 1-2” last week. The driest parts of the state last week received closer to 0.5”.
Impact
- For Wisconet stations included in the chart and table, most stations received between 0.75-1.25”. As a result, all stations saw gains in soil moisture across depths.
- Satellite-based soil moisture estimates indicate that dryness improved across most of the state due in part to last week’s rainfall. Normal to near-normal conditions are more common in further south.
- Drought (D1-D4) coverage was unchanged in Wisconsin from last week’s report.
- Nearly all of Wisconsin’s corn has reached maturity and most soybeans have dropped leaves. Corn silage harvest is all but complete as grain (corn and soybean) harvest made strides.
Outlook
- The best chances for rain over the next 7 days are in northern and western counties, with lesser chances in the southeast.
- Temperatures and precipitation during the October-November transition will likely be above normal statewide (33-50% odds).
- Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide through November into the first part of winter (Nov-Jan). Precipitation is uncertain for most of the state with “equal chances.”
Agronomic, Fruit, and Vegetable Considerations
Field Conditions
- Crop conditions are highly reflective of moisture throughout the state. Late season moisture is causing some issues with grain quality, especially in soybean. Prioritize any affected fields to ensure a timely harvest.
- Soybeans are rapidly being harvested ahead of averages with corn just slightly behind the average for later-October.
- After harvest is a great time to take soil samples. Make plans to stay up to date with your nutrient management plan. Use a Certified Soil Lab.
Forage Management
- Use the Alfalfa Cutting Tool to plan your final cut to manage for persistence and winter survival.
- Read about the impacts of drought on alfalfa if your crop is affected.
- Silo gas has been present again this year in various structures, potentially due to higher nitrate content in silage. Use caution when working with or near these storage structures.
- Avoid immediately grazing frost-damaged sorghum as the risk for prussic acid toxicity is high.
- After corn is harvested, you may consider grazing corn stalks or harvesting corn stover, based on livestock needs.
Pest Management
- Scout fields to note what weed species are part of a late season flush. Pay special attention to winter annual species.
- Planting cover crops after grain harvest is a great way to reduce soil erosion and provide weed control.
- Reducing next year’s weed seed population can be accomplished with combine cleaning.
Manure Applications
- Reminder of Wisconsin’s NR 151 Runoff Rules with the timing of manure spreading and current runoff levels. Check DATCP Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast.
- As you conduct fall spreading, keeping field records is important to estimate crop nutrient needs. Refer to A2809 for guidance. Fall is also a great time to have manure samples analyzed for nutrient content.
Small Grains
- Read the Top 9 Recommendations for Winter Wheat Establishment in 2026. Winter wheat planting is below average for mid-October with the planting window to maximize fall tiller growth ending. Check emerged stands for uniformity.
Fruit Considerations – General
- Fall Sanitation: Clean up weeds around trees and vines, mow aisles to allow for better light penetration to aid in decomposition of leaf/plant material.
- Fall Sanitation: After leaf drop, chop, compost, remove or burn (where permitted) fallen leaf and plant material to to limit potential for disease inoculum and any overwintering pests.
- Remember to note observable fruit damage at harvest to make adjustments in next year’s pest management plan.
- Wisconsin fruit growers can reference the Midwest Fruit Pest Management Guide for a list of registered products and recommended best practices. View the MFPMG Online.
- Reminder: Always read and follow directions on the label and keep in mind pre-harvest intervals (PHI) as we move through harvest!
Vegetable Considerations – General
- Soil testing is a great way to gather accurate information on nutrient levels in your soil and start planning for any nutrient applications that may be needed. You can take a soil sample for testing soil sample for testing as long as the ground is not frozen.
- As fall weather gets colder you can still plant a cold tolerant cover crop such as cereal rye. Be sure to have a plan for terminating your cover crop before you plant. Consider your goals for your cover crop, and plan accordingly for the right amount of biomass to meet those goals.
- Consider how you can prepare for a strong El Niño this winter. This article from University of Minnesota Extension has tips including increased pest monitoring and planning for potential warm and wet spring conditions.
- With frost moving in across the state, there’s still time to plant your fall garlic. Planting should occur within 1-2 weeks of the first fall frost for optimum growth.
Vegetable Considerations – Disease
- Continue to monitor for post-harvest storage issues on vegetables which could include soft rots and gray mold. Optimal storage conditions vary by crop, so be sure to know the right conditions for every crop.
Vegetable Considerations – Insects
- Pest management for next year’s crops starts this fall as many insects and diseases overwinter on crop residue. Residue management (either removing or tilling in residue) can help reduce next year’s pest and disease pressure. Pests include asparagus beetles, crucifer flea beetles, imported cabbage worms, squash bugs, onion maggots, and more.
Dive deeper into each report section by clicking a topic below.
Precipitation Trends
7 Day Precipitation
Image Description ↓
Map showing radar-estimated rain totals across Wisconsin between October 13, 2026, and October 20, 2026. Most of central, northern, and western Wisconsin is shaded in light green and medium green, representing 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Small, scattered areas in the south near Madison and Lake Michigan show dark blue shading representing 0.25 to 0.5 inches.
Image Description ↓
A map from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center titled “Accumulated Precipitation: Percent of 1991–2020 Normals” for October 14, 2026, to October 20, 2026. The color key represents precipitation as a percentage of normal levels. Light green and dark green areas cover almost all of Wisconsin, indicating precipitation levels ranging from 110% to 300% of normal. Southern and central regions near Madison, Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and Green Bay predominantly received 150% to 300% of normal precipitation. Scattered small pockets in far northern counties show near-normal levels (90% to 110%) shown in light yellow and gray. Data sourced from PRISM Weather Data and NCEI Normals, generated October 22, 2026.
- Most of Wisconsin received 1-2” last week. These totals were 110-200% of normal, with some areas of >200% of normal.
- The driest parts of the state last week received closer to 0.5”, which was 75-100% of normal.
- Highest Wisconet station total from last week: 1.69” (Lancaster, Grant County). Totals in Grant County were as high as 200-300% of normal.
30 Day Precipitation
- Southern counties received 3-8” since late September, totals that were as high as 150-200% of normal.
- Central and northern counties tended to be drier than normal (≤75% or normal), with totals of 2” or less common.
90 Day Precipitation
- In the southern 2/3 of the state, totals ranged from 7.5-15” for most, with localized areas of 15-20” in the far south. Rainfall totals in this region were near to above average (90-150%+).
- Northern counties were the driest (5” or less), with most locations receiving totals that were at or below 75% of normal.
2026 Precipitation
- Southern and central counties – 2-8” above normal for the year, with pockets of 8-12” above normal.
- Far north and northwest counties – 4-12” below normal for the year.
Soil Moisture and Temperature Trends
Soil Moisture Models
Image Description ↓
Map titled NASA SPoRT-LIS 0–100 cm Soil Moisture Percentile, valid October 19, 2026, from Drought.gov. Northern and north-central Wisconsin feature dark red and red shading (0 to 5th percentile). Central and southern regions around Minneapolis, Madison, and Milwaukee are shaded from yellow to orange (5th to 30th percentile). A small region in southwestern Wisconsin shows light blue shading (70th to 80th percentile).
Image Description ↓
Map titled NASA SPoRT-LIS 0–100 cm Soil Moisture Percentile, valid October 12, 2026, from Drought.gov. Northern Wisconsin is shaded with dark red and bright red, corresponding to soil moisture percentiles below 2% and 5%. Central Wisconsin shows orange and yellow shading (5% to 30% percentiles). Southern Wisconsin around Madison and Milwaukee shows yellow and light grey shading (20% to 70% percentiles).
- Satellite-based soil moisture estimates indicate that dryness improved across most of the state due in part to last week’s rainfall.
- Abnormally dry conditions are common across the north, with normal to near-normal conditions more common in further south.
- Far northern counties remain much drier than normal for mid-October.
- Notes on how to interpret the maps:
- Red areas = top 5 driest in 100 years.
- Dark red areas = top 2 driest in 100 years.
- Dark blue areas = top 2 wettest in 100 years.
Wisconet Soil Moisture
- For Wisconet stations included in the chart and table, most stations received between 0.75-1.25”. As a result, all stations saw gains in soil moisture across depths.
- Stations included in the chart and table that are currently in D1 drought are Suring (Oconto), Marshfield (Marathon), and Osseo (Trempealeau).
- Stations included in the chart and table that are currently in D2 drought are River Falls (Pierce) and Rice Lake (Barron).
- The table (below) shows total precipitation and changes in plant available water from October 12th (Start) to October 19th (End).
- What is plant available water? To learn more, read this article from UW Extension Ag Water Quality on plant available water. There is also a webinar from UW Extension on soil water management that you can watch.
- Example: Imagine that you have 4 inches of soil in the bottom of a bucket. In that soil, there are 1.5 inches of plant available water. Therefore, if you removed the soil and left only the water available for plant roots to take up, you would have 1.5 inches of water in the bottom of the bucket.
- The wilting point is when plant available water is at 0 inches, and the plant can no longer access water at that depth in the soil.
| Wisconet Station | County | Total Precipitation (in.) | 4″ Start | 4″ End | 8″ Start | 8″ End | 20″ Start | 20″ End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | Columbia | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 1.49 | 1.62 | 3.81 | 3.94 |
| Brillion | Calumet | 1.07 | 0.40 | 0.72 | 1.05 | 1.52 | 3.63 | 4.06 |
| Hancock | Waushara | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Lancaster | Grant | 1.69 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 4.88 | 5.07 |
| Marshfield | Marathon | 1.24 | 0.65 | 1.01 | 1.77 | 2.13 | 4.90 | 5.16 |
| Osseo | Trempealeau | 0.88 | 0.29 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 1.31 | 3.59 | 3.89 |
| Porter | Rock | 0.97 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 4.73 | 4.88 |
| Rice Lake | Barron | 0.97 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.82 | 1.02 | 1.48 |
| River Falls | Pierce | 1.03 | 0.16 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Suring | Oconto | 0.87 | 0.13 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.73 | 0.26 | 0.73 |
| Walworth | Walworth | 0.72 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.92 | 2.03 | 4.94 | 5.05 |
| Wisconet Station | Current 4″ Soil Moisture | Last Week’s 4″ Soil Moisture | 1 Month Ago 4″ Soil Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | 0.84 | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| Brillion | 0.72 | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| Hancock | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lancaster | 0.96 | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Marshfield | 1.01 | 0.65 | 1.13 |
| Osseo | 0.73 | 0.29 | 1.04 |
| Porter | 1.00 | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Rice Lake | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| River Falls | 0.44 | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| Suring | 0.44 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Walworth | 1.03 | 0.95 | 1.07 |
USDA Soil Moisture Reports
- 71% and 68% of agricultural soils in the state are reported as having adequate topsoil and subsoil moisture, respectively. Both values increased from the previous week.
- 19% and 26% of agricultural soils in the state are reported as having short to very short topsoil and subsoil moisture, respectively. Both values decreased from the previous week.
Wisconet Soil Temperature
- At 4”, 8” and 20” depth – temperatures range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
U.S. Drought Monitor
Image Description ↓
A report graphic titled “U.S. Drought Monitor Wisconsin” released October 22, 2026, valid October 20, 2026. The map shows southern Wisconsin in normal conditions (white), south-central areas in D0 Abnormally Dry (yellow) and D1 Moderate Drought (tan), central areas in D2 Severe Drought (orange), northern areas in D3 Extreme Drought (red), and far northern counties in D4 Exceptional Drought (dark maroon). An accompanying table details state percent coverage: Current conditions show 42.28% None, 57.72% D0-D4, 51.93% D1-D4, 43.50% D2-D4, 22.03% D3-D4, and 4.47% D4. Historical comparisons are listed for Last Week (57.72% D0-D4), 3 Months Ago (73.41% D0-D4), Start of Calendar Year (97.24% D0-D4), Start of Water Year (54.23% D0-D4), and One Year Ago (69.29% D0-D4). Author is Lindsay Johnson, High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Compared to last week:
- Midwest: Very minimal change (<1%) in D1-D4 coverage. Drought was unchanged across the north, with localized 1 class shifts in southern states.
- 70.3% of the Midwest region is drought free (~29.7% in D1-D4).
- Wisconsin: No change from last week’s report.
U.S. Drought Monitor Time Series
Image Description ↓
A line graph titled “Wisconsin Drought Time Series (USDM)” plots the percent of state land in various drought categories from April 28, 2026, to October 20, 2026, on a vertical axis from 0 to 100 percent. D0-D4 (yellow) rises sharply in late May to 90%, staying between 60% and 95% through August before declining to around 58% by October. D1-D4 (tan) increases in July to peak around 72% in August and settles near 52% in October. D2-D4 (orange) increases through July and August to level off at approximately 43% by September and October. D3-D4 (red) begins in August, rising to around 22% by October. D4 Exceptional Drought (dark brown) appears in mid-September and remains steady around 4.5% through October 20, 2026.
Temperature Trends
7 Day Temperatures
- Average temperatures were in the upper 50s in the far south/southeast. Further north, temps were in the upper 40s.
- Temperatures were above normal across the state last week. Most of the state was at least 3-6°F above normal, with 6-12°F above normal in the southeast.
30 Day Temperatures
- Average temperatures were in the low to mid-to upper 50s across most of the state. In the north, temps were in the low 50s.
- Temperatures were 2-6°F above normal across most of Wisconsin.
Growing Degree Days (Base 50°F)
Image Description ↓
Map titled Accumulated GDD (50°F) May 01, 2026, to October 19, 2026, generated by Midwestern Regional Climate Center using PRISM Weather Data. Wisconsin is color-coded by degree-day accumulations ranging from 1,760 in dark purple in the north to 3,250 in bright pink in the south. Major labeled cities include Eau Claire (green/yellow zone around 2,560 GDD), Green Bay (cyan/green zone around 2,440 GDD), Madison (orange zone around 2,900 GDD), and Milwaukee (yellow/orange zone around 2,790 GDD).
Image Description ↓
Map titled Accumulated GDD (50°F) May 15, 2026, to October 19, 2026, generated by Midwestern Regional Climate Center using PRISM Weather Data. The map displays heat accumulation across Wisconsin, ranging from 1,750 GDD (purple) in far northern regions to 3,190 GDD (pink) in far southern regions. Key cities marked include Eau Claire (orange/yellow zone around 2,520 GDD), Green Bay (green zone around 2,410 GDD), Madison (orange zone around 2,860 GDD), and Milwaukee (yellow zone around 2,750 GDD).
- Starting May 1 – Growing degree day accumulation ranges from 3130 GDD in the far south and west to 2100 GDD in the far north. These values are 110-115% of normal.
- Starting May 15 – Growing degree day accumulation ranges from 3080 GDD in the far south and west to 2080 GDD in the far north. These values are 115-120% of normal.
Crop Progress and Condition
NASS Progress Report – October 18, 2026
- Wisconsin had 4.7 days suitable for fieldwork statewide. Many producers received their first hard frost of the season.
- 98% of the state’s soybeans are dropping leaves, with 72% of soybeans harvested.
- Corn is 94% at maturity and 24% harvested.
- Corn conditions are 60% good to excellent, up 2% from last week’s report.
- Winter wheat is 73% planted and 47% emerged, which is behind the 5-year average pace.
- Pasture and range were rated 43% good to excellent, up 3% from last week.
- Read the full USDA report.
Forecasts and Outlooks
7 Day Precipitation Forecast
Image Description ↓
A map from Drought.gov titled “7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for October 22–29, 2026” shows expected precipitation across Wisconsin. The color-coded scale indicates predicted rainfall amounts in inches. Bright green covers southern and eastern regions, including Madison and Milwaukee, indicating 0.01 to 0.10 inches. Darker green in central Wisconsin signifies 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Dark blue and lighter blue across northern and northwestern areas, including Minneapolis-St. Paul border areas and Lake Superior regions, indicate totals between 0.25 and 0.75 inches. Source is the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, updated October 22, 2026.
- When? – The best chances for rain are on Monday (10/26) and Tuesday (10/27) of next week.
- Where? – Current chances are higher in northern and western counties, with lesser chances in the southeast.
- Check your local forecast for details on totals and timing.
- Average precip (1991-2020) for this week: 0.59”.
7 Day Frost/Freeze Outlook
- Overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings (10/28, 10/29) could dip below freezing across most of Wisconsin, with lesser chances in the south.
- Chance of a ≤28°F overnight low before October 30th à ≥50% near to Lake Michigan and the Mississippi River; 10-25% in far southeast counties; ≥80% elsewhere.
- To get the latest 7-day frost and freeze guidance, check out the NWS Frost Freeze Decision Support Services Page.
8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
A map from Drought.gov titled “8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook for October 29–November 4, 2026” displays the likelihood of precipitation relative to normal conditions. Entire state coverage in light teal shading indicates a 33% to 40% probability of above-normal precipitation across western Wisconsin and a 40% to 50% probability across eastern areas, including Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay. Source is the Climate Prediction Center, updated October 21, 2026.
Image Description ↓
A map from Drought.gov titled “8–14 Day Temperature Outlook for October 29–November 4, 2026” displays temperature probabilities for Wisconsin. Orange shading covers the entire state, indicating a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the far western counties and a 60% to 70% probability across central, eastern, and southern regions, including Madison and Milwaukee. Source is the Climate Prediction Center, updated October 21, 2026.
- October-November Transition: Temperatures and precipitation will likely be above normal statewide (33-50% odds).
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for October 29-November 4 are 39.9°F and 0.54”.
30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
Map titled Monthly Precipitation Outlook for November 1–30, 2026, from Drought.gov, Climate Prediction Center. The map shows Wisconsin and surrounding areas. Most of Wisconsin is unshaded, indicating equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. A light tan region covers eastern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan, indicating a 33% to 40% probability of below-normal precipitation. The image includes branding logos for NOAA, NIDIS, and National Weather Service.
Image Description ↓
Map titled Monthly Temperature Outlook for November 1–30, 2026, from Drought.gov, Climate Prediction Center. Wisconsin and surrounding areas are shaded in light orange and tan. Central and northern Wisconsin show a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures, while southern Wisconsin shows a 40% to 50% probability. The image includes logos for NOAA, NIDIS, and National Weather Service.
- November: Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide (50-60% odds), with precipitation uncertain with equal chances. In eastern counties, there is a higher probability for below-normal precipitation (33-40% odds).
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for November 1-30 are 33.4°F and 1.99”.
90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Image Description ↓
Map titled Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook for November 1, 2026–January 31, 2027, published by Drought.gov and Climate Prediction Center. The entirety of Wisconsin is unshaded, indicating equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Areas to the east over Lake Michigan and Michigan are shaded light tan (33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation).
Image Description ↓
Map titled Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook for November 1, 2026–January 31, 2027, from Drought.gov. Wisconsin is covered in light orange and tan shading. Most of the state, including central and northern counties, indicates a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures, while far southern Wisconsin indicates a 40% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures.
- Nov-Jan: Temperatures will likely be above normal statewide (50-60% odds), with precipitation uncertain with equal chances. In northeastern counties, there is a higher probability for below-normal precipitation (33-40% odds).
- Statewide normals (1991-2020) for Nov-Jan are 23.2°F and 4.72”.
User Survey
Are you a regular user of the Ag Weather Outlook for Wisconsin (AgWOW)? Or maybe you are viewing this page for the first time this week? Either way, we want to hear your feedback on this resource! Please take a few minutes and fill out this survey. Your feedback will help us better serve your ag-weather data needs through AgWOW.
If you have any trouble accessing or filling out the survey, please email Josh Bendorf at jbendorf@wisc.edu. Thank you!