October 16th, 2025 Weather Outlook

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Weather and climate conditions this week in Wisconsin

Here are this week’s take-home points about the weather. Scroll down for the full downloadable report.

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Current Wisconsin weather and climate conditions

  • Temperatures were only slightly above normal for most of WI last week, a switch from what has been a much warmer than normal fall across the state so far.
  • Rainfall totals were relatively low last week, with most receiving less than a quarter of an inch. Isolated pockets received 0.5” or more. This is yet another dry week in what has been a very dry fall for most in WI.

Impact

  • Topsoil moisture at most Wisconet research farm stations were near or below last week’s levels due to lower rainfall totals for most. Satellite-based soil moisture products indicate soils much drier than normal in the east and north, but closer to normal in the west.
  • D1 drought was added to east-central and southwest WI, with D1 drought now covering almost 11% of the state.
  • NASS crop progress reports are unavailable this week due to the federal government shutdown.

Outlook for Wisconsin weather and climate

  • The next 7 days are looking more active for precipitation, with the highest chances on the eastern side of the state.
  • Climate probabilities for late October indicate a strong lean towards above normal temperatures (60-70% chance for most; higher odds in the NW).
  • The outlooks for the month of November (updated on 10/16) indicate uncertainty for temperatures and precip for most of WI. There is a slight lean towards above normal precip in the north

Agronomic considerations

  • Field Work and Conditions
    • The overall lack of rainfall has been challenging for cover crop establishment.
    • After crop harvest is an ideal time to take soil samples and plan ahead for next year’s crop nutrient needs.
    • Use the WI Frost Freeze Decision Page as overnight temperatures are dropping.
  • Manure Applications
    • Reminder of Wisconsin’s NR 151 Runoff Rules with the timing of manure spreading and current runoff levels. Check DATCP Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast.
    • Fall is a great time to have manure samples analyzed for nutrient content before spreading. Here is a list of Wisconsin certified labs.
    • As you conduct fall spreading, keeping field records is important to estimate nutrient credits for next year’s crop and avoid over-application.  A2809 can provide guidance on these nutrient estimates.   
  • Pest Management ​ 
    • Southern Rust has been reported across the state. Heavy disease pressure can cause premature dry down, reduced kernel weight, and lower yield potential.
    • In order to prevent weed seed spread from field to field, combine cleaning is essential for reducing seed travel between fields. There have also been many combine fires this year. Keeping combines clean will help minimize risk. ​
  • Forage Management ​ 
  • Specialty crops- Fruit​
    • General
      • Fall Sanitation: Clean up weeds around trees and vines, mow aisles to allow for better light penetration to aid in decomposition of leaf/plant material.
      • Fall Sanitation: After leaf drop, chop, compost, remove or burn (where permitted) fallen leaf and plant material to to limit potential for disease inoculum and any overwintering pests.
      • Sanitation: remove and destroy (chop/compost) fallen fruit ~weekly to prevent any internally developing larvae from reaching maturity, and to limit the spread of disease.
      • Wisconsin fruit growers can reference the Midwest Fruit Pest Management Guide (MFPMG) for a list of registered products and recommended best practices. View the MFPMG Online or order a hard copy here: MFPMG Hard Copy.
      • Brown marmorated stink bug has been observed at West Madison. Keep an eye out for large populations. Hosts include apple, cherry, peach, pear, raspberry, and cranberry.
      • Reminder: Always read and follow directions on the label and keep in mind pre-harvest intervals (PHI) as we move through harvest!
    • Apples​
      • •Apple and grape growers can reference the NEWA weather station network to monitor for disease infection periods in their area. Check out your nearest weather station: NEWA Weather Station Network (Cornell).
    • Grapes​
  • Specialty Crops- Vegetables​
    • General
      •  As crops finish up for the season, there is still time to establish a winter rye cover crop across the state. Rye has many potential benefits including prevention of erosion and holding nutrients in the soil, but keep in mind that cover crop benefits are strongly related to biomass. Knowing the planting window for your county can help you predict the amount of biomass and thus the likely cover crop benefits. If you are planting towards the end of the window, it is recommended to increase seeding rate to achieve more biomass. More management suggestions can be found here.
      • Pest management for next year’s crops starts this fall as many insects and diseases overwinter on crop residue. Residue management (either removing or tilling in residue) can help reduce next year’s pest and disease pressure. Pests include asparagus beetles, crucifer flea beetles, imported cabbage worms, squash bugs, onion maggots and more. Diseases include angular leaf spot, early blight, stemphylium leaf blight, brassica alternaria, and phytophthora blight of cucurbits. Additional info can be found here.
    • Pests
      • If you are noticing distorted & stunted leaves or russeting on your high tunnel peppers, you might have broad mites or cyclamen mites. These mites also feed on a wide range of flowers including dahlias and snapdragons. They can be difficult to control as they hide in developing buds and the distorted leaves. Management options include releasing predatory mites if pest populations are not too high and chemical controls.   
      • Aphids are a common high tunnel pest on fall and winter greens. The common species in high tunnels- green peach aphid, potato aphid, and fox glove aphid– are able to survive temperatures as low as 5°F. Population control will only become more difficult as temperatures drop so make sure to monitor and, when necessary, manage aphids this fall. Management options include biological controls such as parasitoid wasps and lady beetles, insecticides, and weed management to reduce alternative hosts. 
      • Also be on the lookout for cabbage aphids and green peach aphids on fall brassicas. Sings on aphids include yellowing & wilting leaves, deformed heads, & drops of honeydew aka aphid poop which is a thick, sticky liquid. Their populations can explode quickly in the fall as reproduction rates actually increase in cool temps (50-68°F).
      • The risk of damage from western flower thrips remains high across northern WI and along lake Michigan. Thrips can be difficult to control as a result of their small size and their tendency to hide. However, there are many tactics that can be combined for better management. Options include promoting more beneficial insects such as minute pirate bugs, using reflective mulch, and chemical control. More details on control options can be found here.
    • Diseases​
      • Brassica alternaria was recently identified in Dane County. Leaf spots are grey or black in color and have concentric rings as they enlarge. Spores can be spread by rain, wind, and insects like flea beetles. Although due to their larger size, spores cannot travel as far on the wind as downy or powdery mildew spores. If your brassicas are infected, be sure to remove or till in the infected plant tissue to reduce overwintering sites in your field. Other management options include planting resistant varieties, removing alternative hosts such as shepherd’s purse and field mustard, and fungicides. 
      • This year’s moisture stress combined with high temperatures can increase the risk of potato tuber diseases during this time of year. Test dig potatoes to look for pink eye, enlarged lenticels, and other physiological conditions. If you notice any of these abnormalities, make sure you are carefully monitoring for disease in storage. Diseases to be monitoring for include pink rot, late blight, pythium leak, and bacterial soft rot. More information on symptoms and management options can be found here.

If you would like to obtain a PowerPoint copy of this report, please email anastasia.kurth@wisc.edu.

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