0:05
All right, thank you so much, Chris and good afternoon everyone.

0:08
Like Chris said, my name is Josh Bendorf.

0:10
I’m the Climate Outreach Specialist with the State Climate Office and Extension and I’ll be delivering your Ag Weather Update today that we do as part of these Badger Crop Connect webinar series.

0:20
This is a reminder this is a smaller version of the larger Ag Weather Outlook for Wisconsin, which comes out every week and the most up to date version of that should be coming out either later today or tomorrow.

0:33
So just to give a recap of rainfall over the last 14 days since the last time we met.

0:38
As you can see, there are some parts of the state here that received very little rainfall over the last two weeks.

0:45
Looking back two weeks back now, September 23rd through the 29th, there was little to no rainfall across most of Wisconsin.

0:53
Most of the state saw no rainfall during this week.

0:56
So most of the rainfall that you’re seeing on the map on the left has come over the last few days.

1:02
So during the week of the 23rd through 29th, the only rainfall that we got was some very small amounts during the early hours of September 23rd. September 30th through October 7th, the most recent last seven days, the highest totals we saw were between La Crosse and Eau Claire.

1:21
But even these totals were kind of on the lower side, only about an inch to an inch and a half.

1:24
And most of this fell during October 5th and 6th.

1:28
You can see that green band there through west central Wisconsin with the lowest totals in the northwest and southeast with totals estimated to be less than 1/10 of an inch for some.

1:39
Looking back at last week, it was yet another warm and dry week as we’ve has been pretty common this fall so far.

1:50
The map there on the left shows the number of days that reached at least 80° between September 30th and October 6th.

1:56
And you can see parts of southern, southwestern Wisconsin pretty much topped 80 every day last week, which is very uncommon for this time of year.

2:06
Days with no measured rainfall you can see again. Almost all or all days during the seven-day period

2:14
Were very dry.

2:15
We saw no rainfall, especially in the southeastern part of Wisconsin.

2:20
The highest Wisconet temperature that we saw over the last week was in Ripon and at Winnebago County and that was on October 3rd, getting close to 90, actually 89.1°. With the highest seven-day rainfall total coming in Outagamie County at the Black Creek Station. One, just a little over 1 1/2 inches.

2:40
Most of this rain came during the evening of October 3rd.

2:46
30 day precip.

2:47
It’s been below normal pretty much across the board in the state of Wisconsin.

2:51
70% or less is common.

2:54
You see most of that.

2:55
Most of the map there on the right is shaded in red.

2:57
Those areas are 70% or even some cases only 25% or less of average over the last 30 days.

3:06
Some areas in the southwest, northwest and eastern parts of the state had an inch or less of precipitation over the last 30 days.

3:15
Very low for this time of year.

3:17
Localized areas of above normal precipitation in the west, central and northern parts of the state.

3:23
Those areas shaded on the map on the right in the green and blue colors.

3:27
The above average for some select few in Wisconsin where totals were 3 1/2 inches or more.  Looking at 2025 precipitation so far, no major deficit showing up quite yet across the state.

3:43
We do have some areas that are now like kind of 2, 4-ish inches below normal, but some areas in the north, far northwest and south are showing deficits of 6 inches or more.

3:54
So just with the recent dryness that we’ve had, we are now seeing some deficits of several inches in some parts of the state with totals closer to normal or above normal as we look in the central and northern parts of the state.

4:09
What does this mean for soil moisture?

4:12
Unfortunately, this week with the federal government shutdown, I can’t provide any NASS updates for crop progress or soil moisture.

4:19
So we don’t have that this week.

4:21
But what we do have are our Wisconet stations and what we saw over this past week in terms of four inch soil moisture is that for the most part the four inch soil moisture is lower this week compared to last week.

4:36
With the little amount of rainfall that we have had and we can see across a lot of stations that totals one month ago were higher than they are now.

4:44
Just with that dry September that we’ve had. How do our how do our soil moisture levels right now compared to normal?

4:52
This is a satellite soil moisture product that estimates soil moisture in the top 1m of soil and compares it to what we would expect to see for this time of year.

5:02
The map in the middle is this week’s map, the SPoRT map, and then the one on the right is from last week just so you can kind of see them side by side.

5:11
If you compare these two maps, we see there has been an increase in the spatial extent and intensity of dryness.

5:17
The more of the map in the middle there is showing up in those orange and red colors indicating it’s more dry than last week.

5:24
After that week of minimal rainfall that we’ve had with below normal conditions across most of Wisconsin.

5:31
But on the western side of the state, we see some areas that are closer to normal for early October.

5:38
What does this mean for drought?

5:40
We saw over the past two weeks, we’ve seen quite a bit of the state now in that D0 category, those areas in yellow.

5:47
That’s not technically drought, more of like abnormal dryness.

5:52
And now we’re up to close to 70% of Wisconsin in that abnormally dry category, a big jump from the small fraction that we had last time we met for this series.

6:03
But we can also no longer say that the state is drought free, as we now have areas of D1 drought showing up in the northwest part of the state and a little bit down there and kind of Green and Rock County right along the Illinois state line.

6:19
These are precipitation rankings for the month of September.

6:23
This is comparing September 2025 to the last 133 years of climate records that we have.

6:30
And we can see one of the biggest reasons why we’ve had this large increase of D0 and D1 in Wisconsin is that we had one of our driest Septembers on record.

6:39
You see some of the numbers on the map here.

6:41
These numbers that are in the hundreds are like top 20, top 30, driest Septembers on record.

6:47
And just to the south of us in northwestern Illinois, they had close to their driest September on record.

6:55
And close and that is leading.

6:56
Some of that has bled over into far southern Wisconsin.

6:59
Why?

6:59
Why we’re seeing that area of D1 now showing up around Green County and you can see how quickly this is intensive.

7:05
Drought has intensified not just in Wisconsin, but region wide on this map here on the lower right, which shows the change in drought category over the past month.

7:16
So regionally, Wisconsin is still doing fairly well compared to other states in the region.

7:21
Drought has really expanded in the southern part of the region.

7:25
But yeah, things are deteriorating here in Wisconsin.

7:29
Turning now to temperatures, things were well above average last week, 10, 12 or more, plus degrees above normal.

7:36
You see the map there on the right is shaded in those deep red colors.

7:40
So everybody across the state was above average last week.

7:43
Average temperatures were in the low to mid 70s in the southern and western parts of the state, up to the low to mid 60s in the north.

7:52
And those aren’t high temperatures, mind you, those are average temperatures.

7:56
So just think about how abnormally warm this is for early October. And 30-day temperatures also above normal.

8:04
Average temperatures ranging from upper 60s in the south to upper 50s and low 60s in the north. 4 to 6° above normal as you get closer to Lake Michigan and then anywhere from 8 to 10° above average further west and north.

8:20
Turning now to our outlooks for the next 7 days and beyond.

8:23
This is the precip forecast for the 9th through the 16th, showing most of the precip over the next seven days.

8:30
The best chances are in the northwest western part of the state.

8:35
We’re expecting a quiet end to this week.

8:37
Not much rain as we head into the weekend, but after this weekend into next week, chances are a little bit stronger for precip.

8:46
And just for reference, our average precip for this time of year is about .72 inches.

8:52
Next 8 to 14 days, there’s a slight lean towards above normal temperatures.

8:56
Not a strong lean like we have seen in past weeks, but just a little bit more of a subtle lean with a slight lean towards above normal precip in the west and near normal elsewhere.

9:10
Next 30 days, the remainder of October still remains a strong likelihood for above normal temps statewide with uncertainty for precip except for maybe that far southeast corner of the state leaning a little bit towards below normal. And the 90-day outlook as we head into the remainder of the fall into early winter, equal chances for precipitation statewide.

9:32
So again, can’t say right now with any with with any degree of certainty what precip is going to be in the state right now for this three month period.

9:41
But there is a slight lean towards above normal temps for most of Wisconsin except for that far northern tier of counties.

9:49
And so with that, that’s the update I have for you today.

9:51
I’ll be happy to take any questions if there are any in the chat.