0:05
All right, thanks.

0:06
And Silva and I, he’s going to go next.

0:08
We’ve combined our slides and into a, what am I trying to say, into a AG policy update.

0:16
So this is what the USDA puts out every six months.

0:19
They did this in February.

0:20
And what it shows is farm income over the last 20 plus years, a little over 20 years.

0:25
What you can see for 2025, the forecast was $180 billion and what that would do is put this at the second highest we’ve ever seen, up about 25 to 30% from 2024’s, 45% above the 20 year average.

0:41
So it’s like wow, looking great.

0:42
September 3rd they put out the update is essentially the same number.

0:46
I didn’t even update the slide, I just said September 3rd it’s now 179.8 billion.

0:51
These numbers are just a little bit due to inflation, but the same general trend is the net farm income that you would see out there at the aggregate level for the whole US is essentially really good.

1:02
But you talk to farmers, you watch the ag media, it’s not that’s not the story.

1:06
And so this is sort of helps us understand it’s really about crop versus livestock.

1:11
And so on the left are crop, this is just cash receipts for 24 and 25.

1:16
On the right is livestock, same thing, cash receipts 24 and then into 25.

1:23
What you can see is crops is down.

1:24
Money coming in from crops is down 2 1/2% from expected for 25 relative to 24.

1:30
Corn is down almost 4%, soybeans a little over 7%, wheat down almost 10%.

1:36
On the livestock side, it’s up.

1:38
Cattle and calves up almost 16%.

1:40
Dairy is basically flat, down 1% at the national level.

1:45
Broilers are up almost, you know, 3 1/2%.

1:47
Eggs are way up 35%.

1:49
So it really comes down to a tale of who you talking to?

1:52
You talking to a crop farmer, things are rough.

1:54
You talking to a livestock farmer?

1:56
The revenues are coming in.

1:58
OK, where I want to go.

2:01
So the other thing that’s a part of this is besides selling things is government payments.

2:06
And this is again from September 3rd, just a few days ago or a few a month ago, a few weeks ago, 2020 all the way up to the 2025 forecast.

2:14
These are slightly different than what we saw back in February, but what you see during the pandemic, 20 and 2021, big payments going out for the CFAP programs and then the PPP loans and that stuff.

2:26
Then as we went into the came out of COVID went into normal times.

2:31
Wasn’t a whole lot of government payments going out.

2:33
Conservation stays there at the bottom in green.

2:36
And then here comes 2025, that great big Gray box. That’s a lot of ad hoc of farm program payments go or farm payments going out for commodity agriculture, 35 billion dollars, 40 billion total.

2:49
That’s why that there’s a big jump up in that line back there with farm income.

2:53
A big chunk of it is this Gray money, $40 billion out of 180 billion.

2:58
So that’s a big jump of it is actually these government programs.

3:02
And so we’ll tear into a little bit of what those programs are. Back on December 21st just before break, the holiday break.

3:10
This is when we’re going to kind of go through the sources of farm money coming into farmers here now over the last few months until current period.

3:17
And then Silva, will talk about the future, December 21st where we get there were two big programs that passed: the supplemental disaster relief program, SDRP.

3:28
The, the, the, the, the law says $21 billion for crop and livestock losses that occurred in the crop years of 23 and 24 for a variety of natural disasters all across the US.

3:39
Primarily the driver of this was for the big hurricanes down in the southeast there, if you remember right, you saw a lot of us saw those pictures of all the floods and how much damage there was.

3:48
Stage 1 sign up started this summer in July.

3:52
It’s still technically open.

3:53
I mean, the government’s not open, but the process is still open.

3:57
And in stage one, what we’ve seen to go out is 5.7 billion.

4:01
You can see that map there on the bottom.

4:03
That’s where the money’s gone so far.

4:04
Minnesota is actually the lead.

4:06
Kansas and Texas are high states.

4:09
Stage 2, according to web page, is targeted to begin in October.

4:13
Obviously, that hasn’t happened with the shutdown, but you can see so far we’ve given out about 25-27% of the money.

4:21
So there’s a lot more money to come out in this SDRP program.

4:24
I expect a lot of this go to the southeast.

4:26
But so far in Wisconsin, look at the table on the right, 130 million.

4:31
Look at our neighbors, Minnesota 667, Iowa 539, Illinois 231.

4:36
In Michigan, they’re at 81.

4:37
You get a sense that there’s been some money moving out.

4:40
This would have been coming out and you know, starting in July, I’m guessing August, September, the last few months before the shutdown, these payments are coming out. After the shutdown ends,

4:49
I expect some of this more money to start flowing again as well as information about the Stage 2 target or opening up of that program because there’s a lot of money to go yet, another 75% roughly.

5:01
The other big one that happened in that passing that law just before the holiday break was ECAP, Emergency Commodity Economic Assistance Program.

5:09
This was $10 billion in payments for 2024 planted acres.

5:14
So the other one was disasters of 23 and 24.

5:17
This was a per acre payment based off of what you had planted or considered planted in 2024, payment race there,

5:24
You know, $43 for corn, 30 for soybeans and wheat.

5:27
Oats about $78.

5:30
Sign up opened in March.

5:31
It’s already closed in August and most of this money’s been sent out.

5:35
9.3 billion has been sent out of the 10 billion.

5:39
So you see, we’re pretty close to done.

5:41
You can see the states here are where it went.

5:43
It’s highly connected to where the corn, soybean and acres are, as well as I didn’t put in cotton, some of those other crops that get paid out.

5:49
And that’s where Texas is so high.

5:51
But here in Wisconsin, we’ve seen 235,000,000 going out on 614 for Minnesota, 800 plus for Iowa, almost 800 for Illinois, Michigan 166 million.

6:01
So this money has come out in the last few months.

6:04
Just before the shutdown, this money was going out.

6:07
Most of it is out.

6:08
I did the math, took all the planted acres in the state according to NASS.

6:12
And of the two take planted acres times those numbers and their payment rates, the most Wisconsin would be getting paid out is about 245,000,000.

6:20
We received 235 so far.

6:22
So I don’t anticipate a whole many much more ECAP money going out.

6:26
That is for 2024.

6:27
So what’s going on for the 2025 crop?

6:30
Well, we’re not done yet.

6:31
We still have 2024.

6:33
This is ARC payments.

6:35
What normally would happen is the marketing year would end for 2024.

6:39
We know the price and we have the county yields.

6:42
And so now you can figure out ARC payments.

6:44
These are projected 2024 ARC payments.

6:47
The map you can see the map, the darker green is higher payment rates, the lighter colors and white is no payments and what you can see there.

6:56
This is projected.

6:57
Silva put these maps together using, we use some USDA data, but along the Lakeshore there and corn we’re talking, you know 60 + 8 dollars an acre in ARC payments.

7:06
There’s another big band like Marathon, Wood counties up to the northwest all the way up to Rusk County.

7:12
Those are the two areas and those are pretty substantial payments.

7:15
Other parts of the state are going out as well.

7:17
These are projected once the government shutdown ends,

7:20
We anticipate these to start going out for these are for the 2024 crop year and were driven by a decline in prices primarily. The yields were down as well and that’s why some counties have higher payments and some counties have none.

7:32
Soybeans, we’re using a $10 price expectation. That same general areas or had that payment, along the eastern side of the state along Lake Michigan, then up through the northwestern Marathon County and Wood, then all the way up to Barron County had payments a little bit lower.

7:48
But you still see this pretty substantial payments to be expected to go out.

7:51
There’s a little bit difference.

7:52
The highest payments down the southeastern corner in Kenosha where corn hardly had anything isn’t going to have any payments.

7:57
Whereas soybeans paid in like Calumet and Manitowoc counties in the middle of the Lakeshore there, are not going to have substantial soybean payments, whereas they will on the corn.

8:06
So you see those differences there.

8:08
Corn and soybean, we expect these to start going out after the shutdown ends.

8:13
This is 2024 for wheat and oats, much lower payments.

8:17
You can see the numbers there.

8:18
For wheat, there’s just a few counties, Clark, Monroe, Pierce County, 25 to $35.00 an acre roughly and that’s pretty much it.

8:26
The rest are pretty low payments for wheat.

8:29
Oats is again a few counties in there and again, they’re much lower payments.

8:33
But you can see the numbers and the locations.

8:35
We don’t expect a lot.

8:36
These are official payment rates and some of these might have come out.

8:39
I don’t have, can’t call the FSA folks in the state to know, but these numbers were these are official payments.

8:45
You’re not projections.

8:46
These were put on the page.

8:47
So these could have gone out before the shutdown.

8:51
The last thing I’ll talk about is so we’ve seen those monies coming out for the 23-24 disasters, the 24 ECAP payment, the 24 ARC payments, there’s been talks of the what to do about the 25 margins.

9:03
They’re terrible.

9:04
We, you see the numbers,

9:05
There’s lots of numbers.

9:06
These are just some headlines that pulled off from different places.

9:09
Is it $3 billion?

9:10
Is it going to be $10 billion?

9:11
The latest we’ve heard is $12 billion as of November or sorry, October 30th.

9:17
That one headline from Politico is 12 billion.

9:21
We don’t know.

9:21
There’s no details yet.

9:22
The government’s in shut down.

9:24
I don’t know what it’s going to be or how much.

9:26
What do I expect, it’ll be based off of planted acres in 25 if there is indeed a program and I’m guessing it’s something like ECAP, but what is it going to be?

9:35
We have no information.

9:36
So that’s what I have for what’s happened.

9:38
We’ll let Silva take off from here.

9:40
I’m done sharing and he will take over.